Poker Hands Odds and Probability Guide

Poker odds essentially put a number on how likely it is for a particular outcome to happen. That could mean being dealt a certain hand, completing a flush with the next card or working out how many cards are still available to improve what you're holding.

Which is why understanding poker hands odds starts with knowing the combinations themselves. If terms like flush, kicker or community cards are new to you, our poker terminology and definitions guide covers the main poker lingo. You can even see where each combination sits in our poker hand rankings guide.

Below, we'll break down poker probability using real numbers, explain how to calculate poker odds during a hand and look at how the maths changes when you move into video poker.

Poker Odds and Probabilities

The odds of poker hands depend on the type of poker you're playing. In five-card draw, for example, you're simply looking at combinations of five cards from a standard 52-card deck. Texas Hold'em works differently because you can make a five-card hand using your two hole cards and five community cards.

Generally, the stronger combinations like royal flush and full house have lower probability because they happen less frequently. On the other hand, a high card or one pair has a much higher probability, as it’s more likely to show up on the cards.

To keep the comparison consistent, the poker odds chart we’ve put together shows the probability of being randomly dealt each type of five-card hand from a standard 52-card deck, with no wild cards. So, there are exactly 2,598,960 possible five-card combinations.

How to Calculate Poker Odds

When you're working out how to calculate poker odds during a hand, one of the most useful terms to understand is outs. An out is an unseen card that could improve your hand to the combination you're looking for. Let’s take a closer look.

Take a standard Texas Hold'em flush draw. Imagine you hold an ace of hearts with a seven of hearts and the flop has a king of hearts, five of hearts and three of diamonds. You can already see four hearts. Since there are 13 hearts in a 52-card deck, another nine hearts remain, giving you nine outs to complete the flush.

After the flop, you know five cards: your two hole cards and the three community cards. That leaves 47 unseen cards. So your chance of hitting a heart on the turn is found by calculating: 9 ÷ 47 = 19.15%. If both the turn and river are still to come, the exact chance of completing the flush on either card is about 34.97%.

There’s no need to worry is all this feels too complicated. A poker odds calculator does the maths for you using the cards you enter. Just remember that the result only gives you a probability and doesn’t guarantee what happens next.

Pot Odds and Implied Odds in Poker

Hand probability is only one part of the maths used in traditional poker. Pot odds compare the amount currently in the pot with the amount needed to call. Let’s make this clearer.

Suppose there's £80 in the pot and another player bets £20. There is now £100 available and it costs £20 to call, giving pot odds of 5:1. You can also express this as a percentage by dividing your £20 call by the £120 that would be in the pot after calling, so you get, £20 ÷ £120 = 16.7%.

If you were holding a flush draw on the turn, there would normally be nine outs from 46 unseen cards. That's a 19.57% chance of completing the flush on the river. Pot odds allow those two figures — 16.7% and 19.57% — to be compared directly.

What About Implied Odds?

Implied odds in poker take the idea one step further. Instead of only counting what's already in the pot, they also consider money or chips that could potentially be added during later betting rounds.

For a simplified example, imagine there's £40 in the pot and a £20 bet makes it £60. Calling £20 would create an £80 pot, so your immediate required probability would be calculated by, £20 ÷ £80 = 25%.

A nine-out flush draw with one card remaining is only around 19.6%. However, if you estimated that at least another £23 could be added by another player later, the potential pot would rise above £103. Your £20 call would then represent roughly 19.4% of that amount.

That's the basic idea behind how to calculate implied odds in poker. Unlike normal pot odds, though, the extra amount isn't already there, so implied odds rely on an estimate of what could happen later rather than a fixed figure.

How Do Video Poker Odds Work?

Video poker odds work rather differently because you're not playing a traditional hand against another player. You're dealt a hand, choose which cards to hold and discard, and the final combination is compared with a paytable. So, when looking at probability here, you need to consider, the likelihood of forming each poker hand, which cards you choose to hold or discard, and the amount assigned to each qualifying hand on the paytable.

Let’s use Jacks or Better as an example. In this format, a pair of Jacks, Queens, Kings or Aces is normally the lowest qualifying pair. However, not every Jacks or Better paytable awards the same amounts for the higher-ranked hands.

A standard 9/6 Jacks or Better paytable awards nine units for a full house and six for a flush. With mathematically optimal hold/discard decisions, its calculated theoretical return is about 99.54%. An 8/5 version instead pays eight for a full house and five for a flush, reducing the theoretical return to around 97.30%.

So, when you see people discussing the best video poker odds, they're usually comparing factors such as paytables and theoretical return rather than the probability of being dealt a particular hand alone.

Poker Odds FAQs

What Are the Odds of Getting a Royal Flush?

In a random five-card hand from a standard 52-card deck, there are only four possible royal flushes among 2,598,960 combinations. That gives a poker hand probability of approximately 0.000154%, or odds of 649,739:1 against.

What Is a Poker Odds Calculator?

A poker odds calculator works out probabilities using information about the cards already known. Depending on the calculator, you may enter your hand, community cards and other known cards to calculate the chances of different outcomes.

What Is the Most Common Poker Hand?

If you randomly draw five cards from a standard 52-card deck, high card is the most common overall hand category, appearing around 50.12% of the time. If you're only comparing hands that contain a matching combination, one pair is the most common, appearing in around 42.26% of all five-card hands.

Are Video Poker Odds Different From Standard Poker Odds?

Yes. Video poker odds combine the probability of drawing different cards with your hold/discard decision and the game's paytable.